How quickly things change! A month ago we were anticipating very expensive 2017 lump sum costs for defined benefit (DB) pension plans due to continually low interest rates. However, rates have been on a strong rebound since the election and now 2017 lump sums are looking much more affordable.

The IRS recently released the November 2016 417(e) interest rates which are used by many DB plans as the reference rates for lump sum payments. These three segment rates are 20 to 35 basis points higher than the October 2016 rates, though overall they are still lower than the November 2015 rates.

This post shares a brief update of the impact these rates could have on 2017 lump sum payout strategies.

Glass Half Full: 2017 Lump Sum Costs Are Going Up, But Less Than Expected

The table and chart below show the possible difference in lump sum values at sample ages assuming payment of a $1,000 deferred-to-65 monthly benefit. The calculations compare the November 2015 rate basis to the November 2016 basis.

Although the projected 2017 lump sum costs are still higher than 2016, the increases are only half of what we were expecting a month ago. It remains to be seen if rates continue their upward trend, but the reduction in anticipated lump sum cost increases may encourage more plan sponsors to embrace pension risk transfer (PRT) strategies like lump sum windows for terminated vested participants.

The November lump sum rates aren’t the end of the story for 2017 PRT opportunities either. If rates continue to increase, then plan sponsors will want to consider using a different reference period for the temporary lump sum window to reflect the higher rates. Even if rates don’t rise anymore, 2017 will likely be the last year to pay lump sums without reflecting new mortality assumptions in 2018.